Thursday, November 8, 2012
WITH less than three weeks to go before the AFF Suzuki Cup 2012 kicks off, football fans are greeted with news that the Azkals have now climbed to 143rd in the world according to the Fifa rankings, its highest ever.
The ranking also puts the Philippine Men’s National Team the second highest ranked squad in Southeast Asia next to Vietnam (138). Trailing the Azkals are Thailand (152) and qualification winner Myanmar (160).
And coincidentally, the top four SEA teams are all bracketed in Group A: Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand and Myanmar.
Group B has the “next four best teams” in the region: hosts Malaysia (163), Singapore (163), Indonesia (165), and Laos (177).
Now some would weigh a team’s chances based on the Fifa rankings, which is often compared with the more “scientific” World Football Elo ratings, the same system used for chess players. Some pundits would argue that the Elo ratings are more reliable than the official Fifa rankings. But let’s leave this thorny issue at that.
For the sake of comparison, here are the Elo ratings for the same teams: Thailand (116), Vietnam (132), Azkals (160), and Myanmar (183). In Group B, the teams are ranked as follows: Indonesia (143) Malaysia (148), Singapore (150), and qualification runner-up Laos (197). In this system, the Azkals are ranked sixth among the eight SEA teams competing in the Suzuki Cup.
I’m compelled to scratch my head knowing that the Fifa and Elo rankings of the eight SEA teams are entirely different. And the discrepancies make it all the more tricky to make assessments based on the rankings of either system.
Besides, there are just too many variables to consider in football competitions, and it’s no different when it comes to weighing the the teams’ chances in the Suzuki Cup.
All Group A matches, for instance, will be played in Thailand, automatically giving the host team the home advantage. Further, the Thais have a rich football history and the team has the pedigree and experience to survive high-intensity competitions, as they have been battling the best teams in the region for ages. All these variables make the Thais heavy favorites to top the group while putting pressure on equally strong Vietnam, the Philippines and Myanmar.
Since the ratings do not factor in those variables, Thailand’s Fifa ranking wouldn’t give you the slightest clue of how dangerous the team is, although the Elo rating might.
Still, both ratings systems only tend to muddle the teams’ true strengths and how they really stack up against each other.
Of what use then is the news of the Azkals’ reaching new heights with the team’s highest Fifa ranking to date?
Well, for one, the psychological effects of a Philippine team soaring consistently up the rankings are tremendous.
It boosts the morale of the Azkals players. With a string of positive results affirmed by their movement up the rankings, the Azkals self-belief is now also at an all-time high.
Then again, will a high-morale Azkals have a psychological edge against its opponents and make them quake in their boots?
Not really.
After the Azkals’ miracle of 2010, Thailand and Vietnam were expected not to take the Philippines lightly this time around.
But the new Fifa rankings that “officially” touted the Azkals as the second best team in the region practically stripped the team of its underdog status.
And when a team ceases being the underdog, its scalp becomes a prized trophy. This means that the Azkals’ Group A opponents will work doubly hard to make life difficult for our boys on the football field.
Vietnam ought to have learned its lesson in 2010, and Thailand ought to have learned from Vietnam’s humiliating defeat against the region’s erstwhile traditional doormats.
Too bad the Azkals’ Fifa ranking can’t be kept a secret.
(nsvillaflor@gmail.com)
Published in the Sun.Star Cebu newspaper on November 09, 2012.
The ranking also puts the Philippine Men’s National Team the second highest ranked squad in Southeast Asia next to Vietnam (138). Trailing the Azkals are Thailand (152) and qualification winner Myanmar (160).
And coincidentally, the top four SEA teams are all bracketed in Group A: Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand and Myanmar.
Group B has the “next four best teams” in the region: hosts Malaysia (163), Singapore (163), Indonesia (165), and Laos (177).
Now some would weigh a team’s chances based on the Fifa rankings, which is often compared with the more “scientific” World Football Elo ratings, the same system used for chess players. Some pundits would argue that the Elo ratings are more reliable than the official Fifa rankings. But let’s leave this thorny issue at that.
For the sake of comparison, here are the Elo ratings for the same teams: Thailand (116), Vietnam (132), Azkals (160), and Myanmar (183). In Group B, the teams are ranked as follows: Indonesia (143) Malaysia (148), Singapore (150), and qualification runner-up Laos (197). In this system, the Azkals are ranked sixth among the eight SEA teams competing in the Suzuki Cup.
I’m compelled to scratch my head knowing that the Fifa and Elo rankings of the eight SEA teams are entirely different. And the discrepancies make it all the more tricky to make assessments based on the rankings of either system.
Besides, there are just too many variables to consider in football competitions, and it’s no different when it comes to weighing the the teams’ chances in the Suzuki Cup.
All Group A matches, for instance, will be played in Thailand, automatically giving the host team the home advantage. Further, the Thais have a rich football history and the team has the pedigree and experience to survive high-intensity competitions, as they have been battling the best teams in the region for ages. All these variables make the Thais heavy favorites to top the group while putting pressure on equally strong Vietnam, the Philippines and Myanmar.
Since the ratings do not factor in those variables, Thailand’s Fifa ranking wouldn’t give you the slightest clue of how dangerous the team is, although the Elo rating might.
Still, both ratings systems only tend to muddle the teams’ true strengths and how they really stack up against each other.
Of what use then is the news of the Azkals’ reaching new heights with the team’s highest Fifa ranking to date?
Well, for one, the psychological effects of a Philippine team soaring consistently up the rankings are tremendous.
It boosts the morale of the Azkals players. With a string of positive results affirmed by their movement up the rankings, the Azkals self-belief is now also at an all-time high.
Then again, will a high-morale Azkals have a psychological edge against its opponents and make them quake in their boots?
Not really.
After the Azkals’ miracle of 2010, Thailand and Vietnam were expected not to take the Philippines lightly this time around.
But the new Fifa rankings that “officially” touted the Azkals as the second best team in the region practically stripped the team of its underdog status.
And when a team ceases being the underdog, its scalp becomes a prized trophy. This means that the Azkals’ Group A opponents will work doubly hard to make life difficult for our boys on the football field.
Vietnam ought to have learned its lesson in 2010, and Thailand ought to have learned from Vietnam’s humiliating defeat against the region’s erstwhile traditional doormats.
Too bad the Azkals’ Fifa ranking can’t be kept a secret.
(nsvillaflor@gmail.com)
Published in the Sun.Star Cebu newspaper on November 09, 2012.
Is Azkals a country?
ReplyDeleteyes
DeleteFor formality sake, stop writing it "azkals". I'm a proud Filipino and from the Philippines. Same as the Philippine national football team- it's our football team.
ReplyDelete